Gold future forecasting based on HAR model from 2019 to 2021
نویسندگان
چکیده
In the international monetary system, gold plays a significant role. Predicting prices is useful and unique skill for anybody. As result, improving one's ability to anticipate futures critical. The study presented in this paper relates predictions, based on heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) theory, Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of Realized Volatility (HAR-RV model), coupled with gold's daily trade volume CBOE Index (VIX) create three models: Trading (HAR-RV-T (HAR- RV-VIX Volatility, Volume, (HAR-RV-T&VIX model). This mainly explores method predict volatility futures. Improve forecasting obviously conducive effectively play futures, including hedging, risk management, price analysis, other tasks. research concludes that adding trading sentiment indicator contributes more robust HAR performs better forecasting.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: BCP business & management
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2692-6156']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v26i.2072